It is clear what you mean – there is a real risk for at least half of customers. But it’s not entirely accurate to say that “sex with a pro is now a 50-50 gamble for contracting HIV/AIDS” among uninfected customers. The actual probability of HIV transmission per sexual act is much lower than 1 – it’s actually surprisingly low per act, if you look at the best statistics on it.

Of course, it gets higher (potentially much higher) under various circumstances: in acute (that is, primary or early) HIV infection; with active genital herpes; for receptive compared to insertive intercourse; and so on. But it certainly isn’t on average “have sex once, and you’ve got HIV” – at least, not according to the best science on the subject.

You also say “[w]e’re on the edge of something”. I would say South Africa is over the edge. SA, despite having a pretty small population (50 million-ish) has the most HIV-infected people of any country in the world (including freaking China and India, according to available stats).

Along these lines, the major US conference on HIV and AIDS (CROI) will be in San Francisco in February. You should look into a press pass.

I have to say, though, Violet, that your assertion that “moral & religious hysteria” is at fault for the extent of the AIDS pandemic here isn’t quite — to my eye — true. Cultural ideas of sex and gender are more at fault than the Church, and those ideas were here pre-Church. Also, religious groups are doing an enormous amount of excellent work here — frequently way more sex-positive than anything you’ll see in the US. Just the other day I observed a Christian educational workshop that covered everything from sex work to homosexuality to marital rape in a very detailed, nonjudgmental (well, it judged marital rape cruelly) fashion. Can you imagine that workshop existing anywhere in the USA besides San Francisco or NY?